RADAR · Pre-filing · Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI IPO

OpenAI submitted a confidential draft S-1 on June 8, 2026. Two weeks later, the New York Times reported the company is leaning toward waiting until 2027 to list — Sam Altman reportedly views a sub-one-trillion-dollar debut as a non-starter.

• $852B — Current private mark
• $25B — Annualized revenue
• Jun 8 — Confidential S-1 filed

Filing status: Confidential S-1 reported filed — not on EDGAR

Reported facts

Filing status

Confidential S-1 reported filed — not on EDGAR. Draft submitted to the SEC on June 8, 2026 (announced same day by the company).

Reported bankers

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading (CNBC).

Reported timing

Leaning toward a 2027 listing per the New York Times (June 25, 2026), citing AI-stock volatility. Prior chatter of a September 2026 debut has moved off the table.

Annualized revenue

Crossed $25B as of end-February 2026 per The Information (17% step-up from $21.4B).

Profitability

Substantial losses; compute-dominated cost base. No verified full-year 2026 figure.

CEO

Sam Altman.

Valuation arc

• Oct 2024: $157B (Thrive-led)
• Mar 2025: $300B (SoftBank-led)
• Oct 2025: $500B (tender)
• Mar 2026: $852B (current)

Revenue ramp

• FY24: $3.7B
• Q4-25 ARR: $21.4B
• Feb-26 ARR: $25B

What the reporting says

The banker slate is on the record; the New York Times has three sources describing a lean toward 2027, driven by AI-stock volatility and a valuation bar Altman won't accept below one trillion dollars. A confidential draft registration statement gives OpenAI two things a public S-1 wouldn't: the option to withdraw without disclosure, and the option to re-price the debut against a tape it likes.

The valuation gap is the constraint. The current private mark is $852B; the reported floor for a debut is $1T — a 17% step-up the AI tape has to underwrite before the window opens. Every "OpenAI IPO 2026" headline is running ahead of the paperwork.

The path from here

• RADAR to READY: promotion fires automatically when a public S-1 appears on EDGAR under the company's central index key (CIK). Confidential DRS is prose-only, never a stage promotion.
• READY to PING: fires when pricing becomes official — typically the evening before trading, always before the open — once terms are set in a 424B4 (or 424B3/A) prospectus.
• PING to STRIKE: fires when the first trade prints on the listing exchange. The moment has no schedule; STRIKE (beta) lands within minutes.
• STRIKE to ORBIT: the deal enters post-IPO monitoring — lockup radar, day-1 close, price history.

What to watch

• Watch EDGAR — a public S-1 under OpenAI's CIK is the single event that flips RADAR to READY.
• Everything else — bank-slate leaks, valuation whispers, timing chatter — is prose input, not a stage change.

What we don't know

• Share count, offer range, primary-versus-secondary split, use of proceeds and listing venue — all inside the confidential draft.
• Final capital-stack mechanics of the non-profit-to-for-profit governance conversion.
• Full-year 2026 revenue and loss figures — no verified consolidated numbers in public reporting.
• Whether the 2027 lean hardens into a decision, or the window re-opens for late 2026.

Public reporting only. Draft S-1 is confidential (not on EDGAR); every figure is third-party or company-confirmed.

Sources

1. OpenAI — Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC (2026-06-08)
2. CNBC — OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street for AI debut (2026-06-08)
3. investingLive — OpenAI files confidential IPO prospectus, suspected September market debut (2026-06-08)
4. CNBC — OpenAI to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday: Source (Goldman + Morgan Stanley leading) (2026-05-20)
5. New York Times — OpenAI Leans Toward Waiting Until Next Year for I.P.O. (2026-06-25)
6. Channel News Asia (Reuters wire) — OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO, NYT reports (2026-06-26)
7. Straits Times — ChatGPT owner OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027, NYT reports (2026-06-26)
8. OpenAI — OpenAI raises $122B to accelerate next phase of AI (post-money $852B) (2026-03-31)
9. CNBC — OpenAI closes funding round at $852B valuation (2026-03-31)
10. Bloomberg — OpenAI Valued at $852B After Completing $122B Round (2026-03-31)
11. TechCrunch — OpenAI raises $3B from retail investors in $122B round (2026-03-31)
12. The Next Web — OpenAI closes $122B round at $852B valuation (2026-03-31)
13. The Information — OpenAI Tops $25B in Annualized Revenue as Anthropic Narrows Gap (2026-03-04)
14. Reuters — OpenAI tops $25B in annualized revenue, The Information reports (2026-03-05)
15. Yahoo Finance (Reuters wire) — OpenAI tops $25B in annualized revenue (2026-03-05)
16. Benzinga — OpenAI's Annualized Revenue Skyrockets Beyond $25B: Report (2026-03-05)
17. Reuters — OpenAI closes $6.6B round at $157B valuation (Thrive-led) (2024-10-02)
18. Reuters — OpenAI closes $40B round led by SoftBank at $300B valuation (2025-03-31)
19. Reuters — OpenAI employee tender values company at about $500B (2025-10-02)